Week 3 Picks: Who Let the Dogs In and Advice for (Chuck) Weiss

Nobody likes to see anybody else get hurt (or you shouldn’t). However, a few of my chums seemed to think that the injury sustained by Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weiss was cause for celebration (or at least an opportunity to take a cheap shot). I think that a lot of these people are missing the bigger picture here which is that Mr. Weiss is now facing surgery and a lengthy recovery process. First Carson Palmer, then Tom Brady, now Charlie Weiss. You have to remember that Charlie Weiss and the “S” word are not friends (http://legalpublication.blogspot.com/2007/07/charlie-weiss-sues-doctors-over-botched.html). If I were Weiss, I would want to think twice before going under the knife after such a debacle. I think that he really only has one reasonable alternative: peg leg. Just think, the next time he wants to try to capitalize on acquiring a personal foul for his team when the action gets too close, he would no longer have to lie to officials by saying that an opposing player “punched him in the face”. He could just start flopping on the ground and accusing opposing players of “sweeping the peg”. The guy is obviously not beyond behaving in this manner to curry favor for his team, he just needs to take it to the next level for dramatic effect. No surgery, more penalties called against opposing teams, I’d have to call that a win-win for Chaz. (Go Green!)

Anyway, Wally Sobchak here in time to bestow my week 3 NFL picks upon thee. Never seen it before and I’ve been following NFL odds for a considerable amount of time. All but one home team is favored this week. Not only is almost every home team favored, with the exception of Washington every home team would be favored at a neutral site (AKA -3 from the point spread). So, my guess is that half of the home teams will cover and half of them won’t. (By the way, my sub par 15-32 record will be addressed next week).

Before I give my picks, let’s break down what we know about the NFL going into week 3.

1) Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals have a great shot of going 0-16 this year. Thank the football gods for not having these two AFC teams pitted up against each other this season. This could lead to one of the more interesting offseason moments, the coin flip to decide which 0-16 team will get the number one pick in next year’s draft. It’s too bad, I actually have a lot of friends who are Bengals fans and it’s tough for them to handle that a) the Marvin Lewis era has failed (after a promising trip to the playoffs a few years back) and b) Carson Palmer may never be the same Quarter back after the infamous “sweep the leg, Kimo” cheap shot from said playoff game. Seems like that team needs to be scuttled in the off season and have a start from scratch rebuilding effort. Anyway, still pulling the stripes to salvage something from this wretched start.

2) The Carolina Panthers defense is very underrated. They have played two very solid offenses (both of whom put up very solid offensive numbers in their other games) and have kept their team in a position to win (which they have). Anybody able to get 20-1 or better on the cats to win the Super Bowl wouldn’t be a chump for taking a shot. (Side note: the Carolina DST is available in 35% of leagues in the world of cbs fantasy. If you are in need, they are solid.)

3) Teams I will parlay until they prove that they can’t cover : Philadelphia, New York Giants, Green Bay Packers (this includes this week, more on that later).

4) Teams that I may never take a shot on all season long: the fore mentioned Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, Miami and Detroit.

So, we will reevaluate these positions next week. On to the picks:
Since home teams are all favorites this weekend, let’s try to figure out who can cover on the road.

Oakland (+8) at Buffalo – Still not sold on Buffalo. They were up 10 early last week and almost lost outright at home. Oakland is not as bad as that first game would indicate. Lane Kiffin seems like he is out after any type of loss. If think the Raiders step up and make it close (or they may go on the never take a shot list).

Carolina (+3.5) at Minnesota – You’re giving points to a 2-0 team who has to play against Gus Frerotte and an iffy Adrian Peterson? Really?

Cleveland (+1.5) at Baltimore – Cleveland has played well for most of its two losses against two superior opponents. Joe Flacco has played the Bengals.

Also, out of the road dog category, here’s my pick on the only home dog playing this week. Give me Green Bay and the points against Dallas. Dallas is great offense minus terrible defense minus road game. Green Bay is good offense plus good defense plus home game. Take those Packers and the points.

Until next week, a good day to you sir, Wally Sobchak.

Home Team	Line	Opponent	Wally's Pick	Dickie's Pick
Atlanta	-4.5	Kansas City	Atlanta	Atlanta
Buffalo	-8.5	Oakland	Oakland	Oakland
Chicago	-3.5	Tampa Bay	Chicago	Chicago
Tennesse	-4.5	Houston	Tennessee	Tennessee
Minnesota	-3.5	Carolina	Carolina	Carolina
New England	-12.5	Miami	New England	Miami
New York Giants	-13.5	Cincinnati	New York	New York
Washington	-3.5	Arizona	Washington	Washington
Denver	-5.5	New Orleans	New Orleans	Denver
San Francisco	-3.5	Detroit	Detroit	San Francisco
Seattle	-9.5	St. Louis	St. Louis	Seattle
Baltimore	-1.5	Cleveland	Cleveland	Cleveland
Philadelphia	-2.5	Pittsburgh	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Insidanapolis	-5.5	Jacksonville	Indianapolis	Indianapolis
Green Bay	+2.5	Dallas	Green Bay	Green Bay
San Diego	-8.5	New York Jets	San Diego	San Diego

Dickie Dunn here,

Let's just say it's a good thing the schedule this week gives us the battle for the Keystone State in Philly/Pitt and a rematch of the "Frozen Tundra" game with Dallas visiting Green Bay because the rest of the schedule is fairly weak. Oh and FYI, Vegas has the over/under on how many times Chris Berman uses his "FROOZENNN TunnnnDraaa at LAMBEAU field !!" line at 6 1/2. Take the over.

Atlanta vs KC is the chop off your pinkie game. Wally and I always joke that with a game like this if you were given two choices. Watch every play of the game or chop off your pinkie...which one would you choose? If you start thinking about which pinkie you'd have to go with....it's not a good sign for that game. I like the Falcons, I think they know how to do one thing well (run the ball) and that's one more than the Chiefs.

You gotta take the Carolina Panthers against the Vikings, I had a turf toe problem in college and it hurt bad. I would try and play and put it out of my mind but in the end it just hurt...a lot. and I was a lineman, didn't have to make quick cuts and get up off the ground almost every play. So AP is not going to be a happy camper come the second half when that painkiller injection wears off.


I think the Redskins will cover over the Cardinals, AZ has looked halfway decent, but you need to win a road game before I take you seriously. Besides the Cardinals are so cheap you know they didn't spring for a private charter flight and aren't staying in a 5 diamond hotel. So you mean to tell me the Cards are going to play well after sleeping on a crummy bed and flying cross country with a three hour layover in ATL? I don't think so.

You gotta love Broncos fans. the team goes 2-0, one good win, one win helped out by a ref's blown call and they start checking out January flights to Tampa. I think they're good....it's just a little early. In the words of Winston Wolf....well you know what they are. ( It's a family blog) But as long as they're playing at home and teams have to come up to altitude to play them, they'll win the early home games.

I think you take the Packers this week because I'm not sold on the Dallas D. I think the Patriots could be the first team to go 13-3 straight up and 0-16 against the spread. Until vegas realizes that Tom Brady isn't coming back anytime soon, take all those points you're going to get betting against them.


One quick side bar, it's good to see the Treasury Dept get involved in bailing out our financial system this week. Anytime you can cover for the mistakes of CEO's who spent shareholder's money like drunkensailors, bought things that they didn't understand,sold products to clients without telling them the true risks, got insurance companies to insure said products so the clients felt ok about buying them. Even though no one at the Insurance companies seemed to understand the risks they were taking buy insuring these structured products, and make the American taxpayer pay for it, it's a win win. Now the Taxpayers will own the largest mortgage portfolio the world has ever seen. Don't get me wrong I think we'll come out ahead in the long run. Since the loans given to these banks by the Fed/treasury dept will be around 11 1/2% interest. Any we'll be buying the mortgages at 30 cents on the dollar. Shouldn't the CEO's of the companies that got us into this mess in the first place lose their jobs? Instead they'll get huge bonus checks beacause the shares of these companies will rise as a result of unloading this debt to the American Public. Nice. U-S-A!! U-S-A!!
One bright note, the RTC trust that Treasury Secretary Paulson is planning to revive for this endeavor, has as a nickname, "The Wolf". Which a classic reference to Harvey Keitel's character in "Pulp Fiction". I imagine it this way. W is on the phone freaking out to Paulson. Paulson calms him down and says... "Sit down and relax and wait for the Wolf." W- "you called the WOLF?". Paulson. " yeah, you feel better now?" W- "shoot yeah bro, that's all you had to say!"... Good Times.


My thoughts...and picks for the week.

Faithuflly submitted, Douglas C Niedermayer.


I mean, Dickie the Greek.

Week 2 Picks : Weirdness Abound!

Wally Sobchak rolling out his week 2 picks. Yes, I am quite aware that last week’s “lock” came up slightly short. I think the Lions got caught off guard by that early bomb to Jenkins and that kept them at bay from playing the run for the rest of the game. The Lions were still in it at 28 – 21, but too much rushing excellence by the Falcons won out at the end. I tip my cap to the Falcons and believe that much better things are in store for their near future. They probably ended up with the biggest score of last year’s draft in Matt Ryan. The good news regarding my “lock”, as pointed out by my good friend Dickie Dunn, was that had I been in Vegas (because gambling is definitely not legal in the sunshine state), I would have had the Lions on all of my parlay slips. Little victories, right?

Other than that snafu, I had a respectable week, finishing 9 of 14 on Sunday followed with a dreadful 0 of 2 on Monday. All in all, a winning week highlighted by taking Tennessee over Jacksonville, Carolina over San Diego (loved the end of that game when the receiver catches Delhomme’s game winning TD pass and everyone just stands there in shock, including the crowd) and Chicago over Indianapolis.

Enough about the past, we’re heading into week 2. This is usually a bad week for picking against the spread. It’s the week where you think you have a good idea about a few teams, but in reality probably not. The fact that a lot of strange lines have popped up is very demonstrative of this theory. Take for instance, Tennessee coming off of a strong defensive showing against last year’s upstart Jaguars are a 1.5 point dog on the road against the Bengals (who were deterred by a rookie starting his first game last week). Seems odd. My thought is that odds makers believe that the Bengals need to have a big game to a) prevent their season from being flushed down the toilet and b) save Marvin Lewis’ job. I’m not buying it.

The Washington Redskins had an abysmal week 1 (see previous post), however, they somehow find themselves being favored in week 2 against a strong Saints team. I know the Colston injury seems like a big hit for the Saints, but Jeremy Shockey and Devery Henderson can still open it up for Reggie Bush on the outside. Not buying this either.

Both of these are games which I would completely avoid if I was laying wood. It seems like Vegas knows something that us common folk do not. My guess is that the favorite hits in one of those two games.

Here are the games which I like this week (aka would bet on if betting were legal, blah, blah, blah):

Carolina laying 3.5 against the Bears. Bears looked great in week 1. So did the Panthers. When it comes down to it, I’ll bet Jake Delhomme over Kyle Orton. The half may end up biting me in the rear, but I’ll take my chances.

Minnesota getting 1.5 (at home) against the Colts. Inconceivable that Peyton Manning could start 0-2 this season, you say? Well, the Colts didn’t just get beaten last week, they were beaten up (hey Marvin Harrisson, way to show that you are still a force to be reckoned with in that receiving corp by fumbling away a ball that was returned for a TD. Maybe you should concentrate a little more on securing the ball and less on protecting your Philadelphia “business opportunities”. In an entirely unrelated story, wasn’t it funny how we never heard any follow-up on that shooting outside of Harrisson’s bar and that Roger Goodell never found it necessary to suspend Harrisson for something he was never convicted of? Roger loves the teams that earn the revenue.) Anyway, Addai’s hurt, Manning is still getting his feet under him, Minnesota has a very good defense as well. Get ready for the “end of the Colt’s dynasty” stories to pop up on Gameday next week.

Denver getting 2.5 (at home) over San Diego. The theme of the week is home dogs (unless you are the rams, in which case I may not pick you to cover all season long). The Jay Cutler revenge game against the smack talking Phillip Rivers is here. I guarantee that the Broncos haven’t forgotten about those two Chargers beat downs from last season. I think the defense brings it against Rivers and LT’s injury is a factor. I will also be attending this game and the Broncos seem to have a knack for covering when I’m at Invesco.

I have no lock this week, because all of the matchups are interesting (with the exception of Giants-Rams and I can’t even lock that because NYG’s offense seemed questionable in the second half against Washington AKA let’s not take any chances because these guys can’t score on our defense).

That’s it for me, I’m sure Dickie will see things differently.

And a good day to you, sir.

Wally



Dickie The Greek here, had to knock some pre-season dust off of my handicapping abilities last week. Hope you still have your house. After week 1 here's what you know: The Raiders and Rams will be fighting it out for the number one pick next April, and Tom Brady isn't going to be on "Dancing with the Stars" anytime soon. Also, Jacksonville proved it's pretty tough to win when you lose 3 starting offensive lineman over the span of two weeks. To put this in perspective, most teams only carry 7 offensive lineman total. Which means Coach Del Rio now has at least one person playing key minutes who wasn't considered good enough to even make their roster just one month ago. If you ask me, I think David Garrard should start wearing extra kidney pads just to be safe. Speaking of being safe, I need to echo my man Wally's comments about Marvin Harrison. The commish has a way of picking his battles when if comes to the leagues conduct policy. I wonder if Mr. Harrison would have been suspended if the Colts weren't having the grand opening of their new Lucas Oil Stadium week one. With oil hovering at about $100 bucks a barrel, coming up with the cash for naming rights must not have been too tough.
Now onto the soon to be famous often imitated but never duplicated, week two picks from Dickie the Greek. Lots of stinkers this week, good thing I have the Sunday Ticket or I'd be stuck watching Oak vs. KC. take the chiefs...don't watch the game. Not sure how that Packers/Lions game isn't more than 3. Take the Pack. Matt Millen has destroyed all hope in Detroit even earlier in the season than usual. I like the Bills, somehting tells me being down 3 O-lineaman is gonna slow the Jags a bit. and the only thing interesting about that Ravens/ Texans game is Hurricane Ike. I took the Ravens. My complete picks are below, lots of stay away games if I was in Vegas, but I made every pick. The closest thing I could come to a "Lock of the week" was the Packers minus the figgie at Ford field. Probably better to lay some wood on the Trojans to pummel the Buckeyes on Sat. The Buckeyes cheat wayyyy better than the Trojans and pay their players lots more and Pete Carroll isn't happy about it. I see him amaking a statement Sat night. Followed by Jim Tressel going to the Alumni mon morning and having them line up some more lucrative "summer internships" for the Class of 2009.

Until Beer with Breakfast is socially acceptable, Dickie Dunn.

(aka Dicke the Greek)

Home Team	Line	Opponent	Wally's Pick	Dickie's Pick
Cincinnati	-1.5	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee
Washington	-.5	New Orleans	New Orleans	New Orleans
Carolina	-3.5	Chicago	Carolina	Carolina
Jacksonville	-6.5	Buffalo	Jacksonville	Buffalo
Detroit	+2.5	Green Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay
Kansas City	-3.5	Oakland	Oakland	Kansas City
St. Louis	+8.5	New York Giants	New York	New York
Minnesota	+1.5	Indianapolis	Minnesota	Indianapolis
Seattle	-8.5	San Francisco	Seattle	San Francisco
Tampa Bay	-8.5	Atlanta	Atlanta	Atlanta
New York Jets	-2.5	New England	New England	New England
Arizona	-6.5	Miami	Miami	Arizona
Denver	+2.5	San Diego	Denver	San Diego
Cleveland	+5.5	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Houston	-4.5	Baltimore	Houston	Baltimore
Dallas	-6.5	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Philadelphia

NFL Week 1 Picks are here!!!!

Wally's Post:
The NFL season has arrived and some of my early season predictions continue to be validated. Just a few mentions about my “told-you-so’s” from my previous post. First, Roger Goodell continues to baffle by once again suspending a Bengal (Chris Henry) for something he was legally acquitted of and reward the cowboys with full reinstatement for Pac Man. Apparently, in Gooddell’s mindset a few indescretions with alcohol/drugs is far worse than performing acts that leave people paralyzed, beating up strippers, spitting on fellow human beings. Oh wait, maybe it has more to do with making sure that every PSL in the 100,000 seat new Cowboy’s stadium gets sold. Either way, I’m glad that I am a Redskins fan and not from Houston. Oh and Chad Johnson, way to make a legal name change to try and make the fans forget that you totally dissed their club. Quite cunning.

Anyway, this year, Dickie Dunn and I will be having a little competition against the odds makers. I’ll give you a little rundown about where I am going with my picks:

First, I did take the Redskins to cover, last night...

Something made me think that Washington’s last two preseason games were a fluke and that Jason Campbell & Jim Zorn did have a clue about how to run an offense. Boy, was I wrong. After watching the first quarter and a half of offensive series, it was very apparent that Campbell expected the Giants D to come out just like the Washington scout team had in practice. When that didn’t happen, Campbell didn’t seem to have any idea about what was going on. He was so bad at reading the defense that Zorn had to put him on “passing probation” and not let him throw the ball for around nine straight downs during the second quarter. I should prohibit myself from picking my teams, but I somehow talked myself into “things being better than they are”.

On a side not, I was thinking about sending Zorn a “Football Coaching for Dummies” book, just to make sure that he has the basics down (You know “When inside of 5 minutes and down by 2 scores, it’s best to try and call/run a play in as short amount of time as possible” or “Tell your quarterback that dumping the ball off underneath on fourth and 13, with no time left on the clock, to his backup running back will be equally as successful as throwing an interception into the end zone” or “Ten yards makes a first down” or “Don’t smile and chuckle in your post game interview when you have just thoroughly embarrassed yourself”). You know; “the basics”.

Okay, enough of that, on to everything else that I like:

Something’s wrong with that Bills-Seahawks line, its weird when an inept offense is favored over a decent one.

I like my subscription to the “Chad Pennington gets revenge on his old squad which he just happens to be playing in week 1” theory.

If the Patriots line was doubled, I’d still have to think long and hard about taking them.

Cleveland will have to pull out all of the stops to try and show that last season wasn’t a fluke (and still comes up short, starting their downward spiral back to less-than-mediocrity). But that line seems lower than it should be (considering the way the Cowboys usually play until week 12).

I can’t believe I am picking Tavaris Jackson to go on the road and win (against a quality defense). Says more about the time which I am expecting the Green Bay offense to be on the field as opposed to defense.

In the battle of backups which have usurped former first round picks as the starter (Cardinals vs. Niners). Take the experience (aka Warner, can’t believe I just typed that..)

And finally, in the “cut off your pinky toe to make some money” game of the week take the Lions over the Falcons. I haven’t been one of those who jumped on the Lions band wagon over the last few years and am still skeptical. All I am saying is Matt Ryan won’t know where he is until about 2 minutes left in the 3rd. Kitna, Megatron and Roy have all looked very solid in the preseason. The D has played very well (anyone else watch the Lions D dismantle Brady Quinn? Didn’t think so). And Rudi is around to share some carries with the rookie. ->Seems<- like a “no brainer”.

And a good day to you, sir.

Wally Sobchak

Home Team	Line	Opponent	Wally's Pick	Dickie's Pick
NY Giants	-3.5	Washington	Washington	NY Giants
Atlanta	+2.5	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit
Buffalo	-.5	Seattle	Buffalo	Seattle
Tennesse	+3.5	Jacksonville	Tennessee	Jacksonville
Miami	+2.5	NY Jets	Miami	Miami
New England	-16.5	Kansas City	New England	New England
New Orleans	-3.5	Tampa Bay	New Orleans	New Orleans
Philadelphia	-7.5	St. Louis	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
Pittsburgh	-6.5	Houston	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Baltimore	+.5	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
San Diego	-9.5	Carolina	Carolina	San Diego
San Francisco	+2.5	Arizona	Arizona	Arizona
Cleveland	+3.5	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas
Indianapolis	-9.5	Chicago	Chicago	Indianapolis
Green Bay	-2.5	Minnesota	Minnesota	Green Bay
Oakland	+1.5	Denver	Oakland	Oakland

Dickie's Post:
Dickie Dunn here. I’m going to be bringing you some NFL picks this week. But first I have some random observations that have come to me since my last post.
Directv has given me three free months of Showtime for being such a long time loyal customer. I’m pretty sure this means I spend too much on my monthly cable bill but someone has to watch “The Thirsty Traveler” and my life wouldn’t be complete without 6 different home shopping channels. Getting to my main point, I was watching Clerks 2 chatting on the phone with my man in Amsterdam, Wally Solbchak and something struck me. It has to do with the music that was playing in the movie, it was the tune from Silence of the Lambs where Buffalo Bob dresses up like a woman and tucks tackle in front of the mirror. Possibly the most disturbing moment of the movie for me. Keep in mind this was a movie that featured Hannibal Lector wearing another guy’s face to escape from some prison guards. Anyways, this music is playing and it’s become famous because of this scene and I couldn’t help but feel bad for this artist who probably spent his whole life trying to be creative, finally had his big break when one of his songs got picked to be in this huge summer blockbuster and it’s forever associated with some dude playing “hide the hammer” with his twig and berries. I hope his Grandma didn’t attend the premiere is all I’m saying.
Only thing worse would be the Valtrex guy, you think video from him saying “I’ve got Herpes” wasn’t played by his buddies at his Bachelor party? Me neither.
Now for the soon to be famous, often imitated but never duplicated, often wrong but never in doubt, picks from Dickie “The Greek” Dunn.

There are only two things in life better than handicapping NFL games. I’ll let you figure out the first one. As for the second one? Well that’s actually being in Vegas laying real money on these games. So until I’m independently wealthy and can quit my day job, this is all you get.


I took the Giants on Thursday, probably more of a pick against the Redskins O than anything else.

I took Cincinnati and the points against the Ravens. The Bengals are bad but I’d sooner have dental work done through my prostate than take a rookie starter coming from I-AA.

I like Miami and the Figgie, I don’t feel great about it but I think Pennington might be worth a few points with the whole revenge factor thing going.

Like the head coach from Teen Wolf , There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese. Oh yeah, never trust Herm Edwards or the Chiefs under any circumstances.

I took the Steelers; they always seem to start strong and then fade down the stretch. Not sure the Texans have arrived yet. I’ll take the dudes with the yellow towels but, I don’t feel great about it.

I think the Jags cover the three and Jeff Fischer finds a way to blame his players for him not making any good coaching calls down the stretch.


The Lions started fast last year and I think they’ll do so again until people realize all you have to do is put pressure on Kitna and he folds like the Philistines.

No way Holmgren and the boys go into Buffalo and lose. Unless Hasselback gets into a wing eating contest the night before at the Elks lodge in Lackawanna up on Route 6.

I like the Saints minus the 3, since they’re home and Shockey hasn't been seen on Bourbon Street for a couple of weeks.

I went back and forth on the Eagles and Rams. It’s a lot of points and there’s no way the Rams can be as bad as they were last year right? Right? Give me the Eagles, McNabb’s healthy and they should be decent until his groin falls off in week 9.

Gotta go with the Cowboys, I think the Browns are this years 2007 Ravens. They got lucky as hell last year and think they’re better than they are.

Give the Chargers, lay the 8 ½. Norv Turner sucks but so does John Fox and there’s no Steve Smith.

Take the Cards but don’t bet the mortgage.

Take the Colts and pray Manning’s knee is up to snuff and they don’t miss their center.

I like Green Bay. Good defensive battle potential here. That’s studio speak for boring game.

Gotta go with the Raiders in week one, they’re my team and seem to be improving. McFadden’s got some hope in his step and Huggie Bear is sneaky. Hopefully the defense can hold up over the season. But week 1, they should be fired up.

There you have em. All of our week one picks, completely free and worth every penny.

Until Beer with Breakfast is socially acceptable, Dickie "The Greek" Dunn.